7. Applications for Prediction

See Section 4.2 4.2: Model predictions for equations 5 onwards

See Section 4.1 4.1 : Basic Equations for equations 3 and 4 .

(a) In a majority of spectra, periodicities up to 4 years contribute up to ** 50% **of total variance (Table 3 5. Data and Analysis ) and is in agreement with model prediction (Equation 14) The model also predicts that, periodicities upto 9.5 years contribute upto 95% of total variance (Equation 15). Dominant periodicities , such as the widely documented

(b) Universal spectrum for atmospheric interannual variability provides precise quantification for the apparently irregular natural variability. The concept of universal spectrum for fluctuations rules out linear secular trends in meteorological parameters with regard to climate change. Global warming, either natural or man - made (industrialization related) will result in enhancement of fluctuations of all scales (Equation 3). The following studies indicate intensification of space-time fluctuations in atmospheric flows in recent years(since 1970s). ** IPCC** (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report shows that recent increases have been found in the intensity of the winter atmospheric circulation over the extratropical Pacific and Atlantic (Houghton et al., 1992,1996 References) and are consistent with model predicted climate change. There have been relatively more frequent

The cell dynamical system model for atmospheric flows presented in this paper is applicable in general to all turbulent fluid flows.